Video Report

Full Report

Home Price Appreciation Forecast

Just a month ago the latest expert projections on home price appreciation for this year averaged 1.5%, and our 2024 forecast last month of 3% seemed aggressive. However, since then, we’ve seen a strong start to 2024, and that average has increased to 2.7%.

Zillow increased their projection over 3%. Goldman Sachs increased their projection over 3%. November's year-over-year gain saw the largest growth in US home prices in 2023, with a national composite of 5.1%. Not everyone has reported the December numbers, but the Federal Housing Finance Agency is reporting home prices rose 6.6%.  Despite all this, Fannie Mae reports that 24% of consumers still believe home prices are going to depreciate. The reality is that we are going to have a good year overall, and our goal is to get that information out there.

According to Freddie Mac, the 43-year average home price appreciation is 4.86%, and their outlook over the next 30 years is incredible.

A 300% appreciation over the next 30 years on an asset is a good long-term investment.

Mortgage Rates

Overall, mortgage rates are showing a downward trend.

And more people are agreeing with our 2024 mortgage rate projection from last month: We will see a mortgage rate below 6%.

It also appears that mortgage rates are now falling again. They will almost certainly not fall to pandemic lows, although we may soon see rates under 6%, which would be low by pre-Great Recession standards.

Dean Baker, Senior Economist Center for Economic Research

We anticipate that after the past several years of extreme volatility and interest rates, the 30-year fixed-rate, mortgage rate will continue to moderate over the course of 2024 moving toward a rate below 6% by year end.

Doug Duncan, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist of Fannie Mae

And if the mortgage rate hits 5.99% or lower, we will see an extraordinary amount of demand. The market is changing quickly, and (just like the home price appreciation forecasts) the mortgage rate numbers have been dramatically re-forecasted.

Bottom Line

This year, home prices are predicted to increase, and mortgage rates are predicted to fall.

Tallahassee Stats