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June 2024 Real Estate Market Update   Written By: Ivan Marquez Executive Assistant, Hum Real Estate

This month’s report delves into key factors shaping the real estate landscape as of June 2024, specifically: home prices, forecasts, inventory, new construction, and renting versus buying.

Home Price Trends

Based on the latest data from January to March, home prices have consistently appreciated. While there was a slight dip noted in January, the trend shows positive appreciation in both February and March. This underscores the continued stability of home prices.

Home Price Growth and Market Forecasts

The National Association of REALTORS® reports that, despite facing the highest mortgage rates in two decades, over 90% of metro areas in the US experienced home price growth. This increase is driven by a persistent imbalance between housing supply and demand, which continues to push prices upwards. Analysts expect this trend to continue due to ongoing shortages in housing inventory.

Looking ahead, initial forecasts anticipated approximately 5% home price appreciation for the year, with expectations of relief from potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, such relief has been limited thus far in the year. Recent updates from various forecasters, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, indicate a wide range of price appreciation forecasts from 0.5% to nearly 4.8%, with an average estimate of 3%. Some forecasters have revised their expectations downward due to market activity and mortgage rate trends. Overall, analysts foresee a moderate and healthy price appreciation between 3% and 5% for residential real estate in the current year.

Market Inventory Trends

Forecasters predict some relief in mortgage rates in the second half of the year, potentially lowering to around 6.5% by year-end or early next year. As rates decrease, we can expect increased market activity and further price appreciation. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of the National Association of REALTORS®,  attributes rising prices to the ongoing shortage of housing supply, with an estimated deficit of 1.5 to 3 million homes, keeping upward pressure on prices.

Current inventory levels have increased by 38.4% compared to the same time last year, but remain 35.7% below pre-pandemic levels from 2019. While inventory is gradually rebuilding post-pandemic, it has not yet reached the levels seen in previous years. According to realtor.com, active listings in May for the years 2017-2019 ranged from 1.1 to 1.2 million homes. However, inventory began to decline significantly in 2020 due to a surge in market activity and lower interest rates, leading to the current inventory challenges.

Impact of New Construction on Housing Inventory

New construction homes currently comprise over one-third of available inventory, more than double the usual rate of 13%. Builders have significantly increased inventory by finding cost-effective solutions such as buying down rates and using creative financing to attract buyers. This surge in new construction is a critical trend to monitor.

The Best Long-Term Investment

While the industry often focuses on the financial benefits of homeownership, it's important to highlight the non-financial benefits as well. According to a Gallup survey, 36% of Americans consider real estate the best long-term investment, surpassing stocks, mutual funds, gold, savings accounts, and crypto. Similarly, a Bank of America study shows that the vast majority of prospective home buyers believe that purchasing a home now or in the future is the best long-term decision for them and their families.

Owning a Home vs Renting

Owning a home represents more than just a financial decision — it embodies the American Dream of stability and personal fulfillment. Homeownership offers stability, freedom to customize living spaces, community engagement, and financial benefits like equity and tax advantages. 

Inflationary economies underscore the value of homeownership as a hedge against rising costs, allowing buyers to lock in today's mortgage rates and potentially refinance in the future. Unlike renting, which often sees increasing payments over time, owning a home provides a stable monthly payment, the opportunity to build equity, and the ability to secure long-term financial security through potential rental income and a forced savings plan.

How Homeownership Helps You Emotionally

While many view homeownership as a good investment and a priority for their family, emotional reasons also play a significant role in the decision to buy. According to a Bank of America survey, 89% of respondents said that owning a home brings emotional fulfillment rather than added stress.

Additionally, 67% of home buyers prefer owning for the sense of permanence and emotional stability it provides, and 58% believe it's the best long-term decision for having control over their living space. There are emotional benefits to homeownership.

Bottom Line

Home prices are forecasted to increase in 2024 due to the undersupply of homes, however, new construction is about double a normal year in real estate and may offer much needed relief as mortgage rates are predicted to decline.

How Tallahassee Wrapped Up Last Month