November 2023 Real Estate Market Update

November 30, 2023

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Usually this is a time of year where the level of appreciation starts slowing down (deceleration – not depreciation).

Chart of Tallahassee home prices and year-over-year movement from January through October 2023.

When we try to overlay the 49-year average seasonal home price movement over this year’s sales in Tallahassee, we see that home prices locally may not be decelerating as quickly as they have historically.

Line chart comparing monthly national home prices in 2023 with the 49-year average.

However, nationally the level of appreciation is starting to moderate back to more normal levels.

Mortgage rates by decade: 8.86% in the 1970s, peaking at 12.7% in the 1980s, then declining to 4.09% in the 2010s; 7.43% as of Nov. 19, 2023.

The current mortgage rates are impacting affordability, where the average monthly payment has increased $200 since May. However, since home value appreciation is returning to more normal levels, and equity gains appear to be outweighing the cost of the higher mortgage rates, people are still planning to buy a home.

Prospective homebuyers chart showing quarterly percentages from 2018 to 2023, ending near 17%.

According to the National Association of Home Builders Housing Trends Report, 17% of prospective homebuyers plan to purchase a home in the next 12 months.

Mortgage rate projections by quarter and organization, with average forecasts from 7.43% in Q4 2023 to 6.57% in Q3 2024.

And buying now might be a smart move. Interest rates are predicted to not quite drop a whole percentage point by this time next year.

Infographic compares buying a $300,000 home now or a year later, highlighting the cost of waiting.

And by this time next year homes are likely to have appreciated in value between 3% and 5%. For an average-priced home, that could mean you wait a year to save $150 a month on your mortgage payment, but lose out on the opportunity to gain $10,000 in equity.

Line chart shows homeowner net worth rising sharply by 2022 while renter net worth remains near zero.

And if you are renting that average-priced home, you’re likely looking at a $2,500 monthly payment. That equates to $30,000 a year in that could be invested in an appreciating asset.

The Federal Reserve’s Study of Consumer Finances comes out every 3 years, and the difference in net worth between homeowners and renters is not only staggering, but widening.

Line chart comparing tappable equity and U.S. small business applications from 2015 to 2022.

There is an extraordinary correlation between small business applications and tappable equity (80% of the home’s value). The equity you earn as a homeowner can be borrowed against to not only open a business, but to pay off debt, invest, or renovate. Your home equity can provide generational wealth and financial freedom.

Finally, here is how we wrapped up last month in Tallahassee:

October 2023 Tallahassee single-family home market statistics infographic