July 2026 Real Estate Market Update

July 29, 2026

All Real Estate News

July 2026 real estate market update, with Hum Real Estate branding and a building photo.

Video Update

Full Report

Welcome to this month's real estate market update, where we separate the headlines from the hype. We'll tackle some of the market's hottest topics, and answer the questions everyone's asking.

The Rise in De-Listings

If you've been following real estate news lately, you've probably noticed a flood of headlines about homeowners pulling their properties off the market. So... are sellers waving the white flag?

Real estate news collage about sellers pulling homes off the market and struggling to sell.

Here's our take: de-listings aren't actually the problem. They're more like a symptom of the underlying problem.

De-listings are happening, but the real story isn't that sellers are throwing in the towel. It's why they're choosing to hit pause. That's where things get interesting.

A recent Redfin study offered some fascinating insight into what's really happening with today's sellers.

Quote card: 5.8% of U.S. home listings were taken off the market in April, tied for the highest share since March 2020.

The pandemic brought the housing market to a standstill. Before 2020 de-listings were nowhere near as common as they are now.

The real issue is that many are entering the market with yesterday's expectations in today's market.

Redfin points to three major reasons behind the rise in de-listings: more competition, price expectations, and time on the market.

More Competition

For the first time in years, inventory has been steadily growing. In fact, it's been increasing for four straight years.

U.S. active housing inventory chart, with monthly bars trending upward from 2021 through May 2026.

We depleted inventory all across the country during and after the pandemic, and we've been building back ever since. Many sellers are now competing with several similar homes down the street. Buyers suddenly have options, and they're negotiating again. That increased competition among sellers means some homes sit unsold, prompting owners to pull them off the market rather than cut their price.

Tallahassee active housing inventory bar chart, rising overall from 2021 through May 2026.

However, we cannot stress enough that real estate is hyperlocal. Tallahassee is only recently seeing that same trend in increasing inventory since the pandemic. That means we stayed competitive longer, but are finally catching up to the broader trend.

Price Expectations

Let's be honest... 2021 and 2022 spoiled everybody. Homes were selling in a weekend with multiple offers, over asking price, and some sellers are still expecting that kind of magic. But that was all caused by extraordinary, possible once in a lifetime, circumstances.

Today's market has changed. Pricing a home based on what your neighbor got three years ago is simply not going to work.

Here’s a great example of seller’s expectations right now:

Chart of sellers’ expectations: 37.0% expect above asking, 46.4% asking, 11.9% below, and 4.7% don’t know.

According to realtor.com, 80% of sellers think they'll get their asking price or more.

The reality?

Bar chart showing homes selling below list price rising from 38% in 2021 to 62% in 2025.

62% of all homes sold were sold less than the asking price.

Dejan Eskic says homeowners may stay put when their price expectations are unmet because moving is not worth the cost.

When a seller doesn't have a strong reason to move, or maybe doesn't understand how today's market is working, they're much more likely to hit the pause button instead of adjusting their strategy.

Time on the Market

Homes are simply taking longer to sell in many markets across the country. That doesn't mean they're not selling, it just means patience and strategy have replaced the "list it Friday, sold by Monday" playbook.

Chart showing national homes taking longer to sell, with a rising Tallahassee trend from 2022 to 2026.

Locally and nationally, we are at 50+ days on market (how long it takes for a home to sell). Another sign we are returning to the pre-pandemic, more normal, more historical benchmarks.

Market Shift

Here's the takeaway: de-listings are a symptom, not the disease.

The market hasn't stopped. It has simply shifted. The sellers who understand that shift are the ones who are finding success.

What's Ahead for 2026?

Between economic uncertainty, shifting rates, and headlines that seemed determined to terrify rather than clarify, 2026 has been... a lot.

The good news? As we head into the second half of the year, there's reason to hope for a little more stability. If global tensions begin to ease, we can be more optimistic that the back half of 2026 will be a bit calmer.

So, what should sellers and buyers actually be watching?

What’s Ahead for Inventory?

Inventory growth appears to be leveling off.

Mike Simonsen: “Four years of post-pandemic inventory recovery appears to have plateaued.”

If you look at the year-over-year inventory chart, you can see why.

Chart comparing national inventory gains with Tallahassee’s trend from April 2025 through May 2026.

This backs up the idea that homeowners are thinking, "If I don't absolutely have to move... maybe I'll just stay put."

And honestly, can you blame them? Trading a 3% mortgage for one that's closer to today's rates isn't exactly an easy sell.

The result? Fewer new listings are entering the market, and inventory growth is beginning to plateau.

Today's housing market isn't just about supply and demand. It's about motivation. Sellers with a strong reason to move are still making moves. Those without one are saying, "We'll revisit this next year."

What’s Ahead for Home Prices?

If you've spent any time on social media lately, you've probably seen someone confidently declaring, "Home prices are crashing!" Here's what the data actually says.

Most national forecasts for 2026 are calling for modest home price growth.

Chart of 2026 home price growth forecasts, ranging from 0.6% for MBA to 4.0% for NAR.

The current consensus is that prices will finish the year up around 2.3% nationally.

In fact, National Association of REALTORS® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun estimates that the typical homeowner could gain around $16,000 in housing wealth in 2026 through continued appreciation.

The bottom line? While the days of double-digit price jumps are likely behind us, the data doesn't currently point to a nationwide decline in home prices.

What’s Ahead for Mortgage Rates?

Most experts are forecasting rates to stay fairly steady through the rest of 2026, landing somewhere around 6.3% to 6.4%.

Mortgage rate forecast chart comparing Freddie Mac actual rates with MBA, Fannie Mae, and Wells Fargo forecasts through 2027.

But here's where things get interesting… This could all change because of something you probably don't think about when house hunting: oil prices.

When oil prices rise, transportation and shipping costs tend to increase, which can contribute to higher inflation. And inflation is one of the biggest factors influencing the bond market, which helps determine mortgage rates.

The hope is that oil prices trend downward.

But, don’t forget the old saying in real estate: Mortgage rates take the elevator up, and the stairs back down. In other words, they rise quickly but usually decline much more gradually.

The headlines you read about inflation usually describe what already happened. Financial markets, however, are constantly trying to predict what happens next.

If investors believe inflation is likely to cool because energy prices fall, mortgage rates can begin responding before those changes show up in the monthly inflation reports.

History gives us a reason to watch this closely. Similar patterns played out in 1999–2000, 2005–2006, and 2018–2019, when oil prices climbed, then eased, and mortgage rates followed a similar path.

Three time-series charts comparing Brent crude oil prices and 30-year fixed mortgage rates.

What’s Ahead for Home Sales?

Buyers are starting to say yes again.

Single-family pending home sales chart comparing monthly trends for 2024, 2025, and 2026.

When we look at single-family pending home sales, 2026 is tracking ahead of previous years, despite all the obstacles buyers have faced: higher mortgage rates, affordability challenges, and a lot of uncertainty.

That's important. Because for a market to improve, buyers have to stop waiting for the "perfect" moment, and start making decisions based on the market that's actually in front of them.

The National Association of REALTORS® is projecting that home sales should be modestly stronger in the second half of 2026, and that lines up with what we're seeing in the market.

Average total home sales: 4,745,000 in 2024, 4,755,000 in 2025, and 4,878,000 forecast for 2026.

Bottom Line

The housing market may not be sprinting, but it does appear to be walking in the right direction.

And after the roller coaster ride of the last few years, a steady walk forward might be exactly what the market needs.

Odeta Kushi’s quote on gradual pent-up housing demand and varying market recovery.

Last Month’s Real Estate Market Statistics in Tallahassee

Tallahassee June 2026 market statistics: $418,682 average sales price, 24 days to contract, and 1,082 active listings.

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